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   The AI race to the bottom is here
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   Open or closed, nobody in AI is turning a profit right now — they're just choosing how to lose money
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              Tuesday, July 28, 2026
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               Open or closed, nobody in AI is turning a profit right now — they're just choosing how to lose money
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              Raul Ariano/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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               U.S. chip stocks
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="just took a tumble" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               just took a tumble
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               , and a Chinese startup most people had never heard of is the reason why.
              </span>
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             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Moonshot AI put out an open-weight model
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="called Kimi K3" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               called Kimi K3
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               earlier this month that seemed to match what Anthropic and OpenAI charge a premium for. The semiconductor index slid into a bear market in response. If this sounds familiar, it’s because this happened in
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="2025 with DeepSeek" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               2025 with DeepSeek
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               , when a different Chinese lab showed up with a cheaper model that worked and hit the chip stocks the same way.
              </span>
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               By last week, some analysts were walking the DeepSeek moment 
2.0 back, pointing out that a model Kimi's size still needs a lot of compute to run properly, making it less far ahead than it appeared at first blush. But the instinct to reach for that comparison, even a slightly premature one, says something about how fragile the AI story has gotten.
              </span>
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                  Sponsored
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                   Your next hire might not need to be a hire.
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                   Every growing company wants faster customer support, better sales coverage, and more responsive service—but adding headcount isn't always the answer.
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                   Spend less time building infrastructure—and 
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                                  Explore ElevenAgents →
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               Closed in the West, Open in the East
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             </h2>
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              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Right now there are basically two models on offer. 
American labs and tech companies building frontier models are mostly staying closed, and they are doing it out of both business logic and government pressure.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               But Mark Zuckerberg,
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="talking about democratizing AI" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               talking 
about democratizing AI
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               , first spent around $100 billion trying to build Llama into a genuinely open alternative to what Anthropic and OpenAI were charging for — intelligence anyone could download and run themselves, no subscription required.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               It didn't work. The model that came out the other end was too slow and too unwieldy for most people to bother with, and Meta shelved it and
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="reoriented its AI teams towards building closed systems" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               reoriented its AI teams towards building closed systems
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               .
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               China's read on this moment is the opposite. Xi Jinping
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="recently told an audience that his country" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               recently told an audience that his country
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               should treat "open source, openness, collaboration and sharing" as a matter of national strategy in AI, not a side preference, and the labs have followed that lead even when
it costs them.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Moonshot's Kimi K3 is open weight. Z.ai's
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="GLM 5.2 is open weight" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               GLM 5.2 is open weight
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               . Alibaba, which had actually
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="pulled back to closed models" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               pulled back to closed models
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               on its most powerful releases earlier this year, reversed course again after Xi's 
speech and announced its next flagship, Qwen3.8 Max,
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="will eventually go open" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               will eventually go open
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               too.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               None of these companies are making money doing this yet, but the payoff 
was never supposed to be the balance sheet. This is a bet on influence and reach that plays out over years, not quarters or IPO dates.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               It's already working by that measure. Roughly
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="a third of all global AI usage" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               a third of all global AI usage
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               now runs on Chinese open source models, and in markets like Nigeria, Malaysia and Brazil, developers can build on them for more than 90 percent less than it would cost to build on OpenAI.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               For Washington, that adoption curve looks less like a business problem and more like the next space race, one where influence and infrastructure matter as much as who has the best model. The Trump administration has reportedly 
considered
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="banning Chinese models outright to slow it down" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               banning Chinese models outright to slow it down
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               .
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Some voices close to the administration
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="argue the open Chinese models are unacceptably risky" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               argue the open Chinese models are unacceptably risky
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               and should be restricted on national security grounds.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Others, including venture capitalists
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="who otherwise largely support the administration" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               who otherwise largely support the administration
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               , argue that 
framing is really about protecting Anthropic and OpenAI's pricing power, dressed up as a safety concern.
              </span>
             </div>
            </td>
           </tr>
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            <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="width:560px;padding:20px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.5;vertical-align:top;mso-line-height-rule:exactly" width="560">
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              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF;font-size:20px">
               A race to the bottom
              </span>
             </h2>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               None of this is cheap to run, open or closed.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               A frontier AI model still costs real money no matter who built it. Anthropic and OpenAI are burning cash too, betting that scale eventually catches up 
with spending. What's different in China is
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="how much more they're willing to burn" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               how much more they're willing to burn
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               , and for how long. Mozilla's new State of Open-Source AI report
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="found running costs for these models have fallen roughly 50 times" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               found running costs for these models have fallen roughly 50 times
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               over in three years, and the performance gap with the best closed models is down to about 
3%.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               That's a great deal for anyone building on top of these models. It's a much tougher one for the labs building them, most of which are still losing money hand over fist.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               This is starting to look like the kind of race to the bottom that plays out in any commodity business, oil, airlines, chips. Prices fall until only the lowest cost producer survives, and everyone else prays 
for a shakeout.
              </span>
              <a data-air-original-link-color="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-linktext="There is no moat" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFFFFF" target="_blank">
               There is no moat
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               in AI right now, after all.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Neither side has actually solved for that. Charging a premium only works if 
there's something durable behind the price, and open source is proving there isn't. Giving models away only works if the costs eventually come down enough to stop bleeding money, and they haven't, not yet, not close. Both bets assume the other problem gets solved on someone else's timeline.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               That's the part the flag waving skips over. No moat and no cheap intelligence, at the same time, is not a business model. It's just where this industry happens to be 
standing right now.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               —Jackie Snow, Contributing Editor
              </span>
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