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Subscribed 5 years ago
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The Federal Reserve voted to keep rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%
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Fed Char Kevin Warsh (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
</h1>
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<span class="tinyMce-placeholder" style="word-break: break-word;">
Hey Snackers,
</span>
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<p style="margin:0;margin-bottom:16px">
The newest producer of scripted dramas is…
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Procter & Gamble
</strong>
</a>
? The manufacturer of your toothpaste, toilet paper, and Tide pods is collaborating with
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Albertsons
</strong>
</a>
to produce “
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Rico’s Tacos,
</strong>
</a>
” a short-form series about a widowed father, his teenage daughter, and her abuela, who run a family taco business while using P&G products. In the series pilot, the abuela goes to Albertsons to buy avocados and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
realizes she needs a bottle of P&G’s Head & Shoulders shampoo
</strong>
</a>
.
</p>
<p style="margin:0;margin-bottom:16px">
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and every Magnificent 7 stock traded lower yesterday. Every S&P 500 sector fell, with communications leading losses.
</p>
<p style="margin:0">
US markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Juneteenth, but we’ll be back in your inbox on Monday.
</p>
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<span class="button" style="background-color: #5869ff; border-bottom: 2px solid #000000; border-left: 2px solid #000000; border-radius: 7px; border-right: 2px solid #000000; border-top: 2px solid #000000; color: #ffffff; display: inline-block; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; mso-border-alt: none; text-align: center; width: auto; word-break: keep-all; letter-spacing: normal;">
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<strong>
RIP GOOD TIMES
</strong>
</span>
</span>
</span>
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<strong>
Federal Reserve removes easing bias, policymakers see a hike as more likely than a cut this year
</strong>
</h1>
</td>
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<p style="margin:0">
In
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
an incredibly brief statement,
</strong>
</a>
<strong>
</strong>
the Federal Reserve voted to keep rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as was universally expected.
</p>
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<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
The release eliminated any hints as to the future for policy rates. Its April statement included the phrase “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target rate,” which was a nod to the idea that another cut was more likely than a shift towards hikes.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
At that time, three monetary policymakers dissented, preferring that this easing bias be removed. Today’s unanimous vote suggests that members are aligned on this matter, given the renewed strength in labor market data since May and the stickiness of inflation.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Of course, hints on the outlook for short-term rates can still be divined through the dot plot,
<strong>
</strong>
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
and that came out on the hawkish side
</strong>
</a>
.
</li>
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<p style="margin:0">
The median Fed official thinks the policy rate should be at 3.75% if the economy evolves in line with their expectations, which implies a hike is seen as more likely than a cut. Wall Street had anticipated that the 2026 dot would rise to only 3.625% from 3.375%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off following the statement and projections; Treasury yields rose.
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Stocks pared some of their losses
</strong>
</a>
during new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
</p>
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<span class="tinyMce-placeholder" style="word-break: break-word;">
THE TAKEAWAY
</span>
</h1>
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<p style="margin:0;margin-bottom:16px">
Warsh has often suggested that the central bank over-communicates with markets, and his proclivity for brevity is reflected in today’s press release. During the press conference, he positioned himself as a reformer, outlining different task forces he’s establishing in an attempt to improve the conduct of monetary policy and economic outcomes.
</p>
<p style="margin:0;margin-bottom:16px">
Prediction markets now see a
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
hike in July as more likely than a cut
</strong>
</a>
, a reversal of what was priced in ahead of this event. They also price in a greater risk of an interest rate hike before the year is out,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
with those odds rising to about 60% from roughly 40%
</strong>
</a>
*.
</p>
<p style="margin:0">
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
</p>
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<strong>
GAME ON
</strong>
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For instance, in yesterday’s
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Scoreboard
</strong>
</a>
:
</p>
<p style="margin:0">
After Monday’s “day of the draws” — just the second time in World Cup history that four ties happened on the same day — Tuesday brought the tournament into greater focus. The pregame favorites (France, Argentina, Norway, Austria) all won, and won big, at least by soccer standards — every margin was by more than 2 goals — and some of the faces of the tournament had huge days as well.
<a rel="noopener" style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_blank">
<strong>
Kylian Mbappé of France
</strong>
</a>
scored twice (us soccer aficionados call that a “brace”), as did
<a rel="noopener" style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_blank">
<strong>
Norway’s Erling Haaland
</strong>
</a>
(a Scoreboard favorite going way back). And
<a rel="noopener" style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_blank">
<strong>
Lionel Messi
</strong>
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, arguably the greatest footballer ever, one-upped them both with a hat trick, netting each of Argentina’s 3 goals vs. Algeria.
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As business owners turn to AI chatbots to help them evaluate vendors, some companies are gaming chatbot response rankings by publishing
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fake, biased "reviews" on their own websites
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designed to be ingested by AI chatbots.
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How one company defended its publishing practices
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It’s a huge day for the hosts tomorrow, as both Canada and Mexico have massive must-win games:
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<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
🇨🇿 Czechia vs. 🇿🇦 South Africa:
</strong>
The Czechs have
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
a 55% chance of a win
</strong>
</a>
,* while South Africa is down to a 21% shot after their loss to Mexico.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
🇲🇽 Mexico vs. 🇰🇷 South Korea:
</strong>
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Mexico 49% to win, Korea 24%.
</strong>
</a>
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
🇨🇦 Canada vs. 🇶🇦 Qatar:
</strong>
The Canadians have a
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
77% chance of victory
</strong>
</a>
<strong>
</strong>
to Qatar’s 9%.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs. 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina:
</strong>
The Swiss have
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
a 64% chance of pulling off the win
</strong>
</a>
<strong>
</strong>
to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 15%.
</li>
</ul>
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<li style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Despite a slight dip,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Japanese tourism figures
</strong>
</a>
are still hovering near record highs, proving the country remains one of the world's hottest destinations.
</li>
<li style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
The World Cup and NBA and NHL finals have given
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
prediction markets a predictable summer boost
</strong>
</a>
, with platforms like
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
DraftKings
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Flutter
</strong>
</a>
riding the wave of bettors eager to wager on outcomes beyond the scoreboard.
</li>
<li style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_self">
<strong>
Figma
</strong>
</a>
shares climbed after Citi initiated coverage with a
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
“Buy” rating and $36 price target
</strong>
</a>
, arguing the design platform can turn AI from an existential threat into growth engine.
</li>
<li style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Amazon
</strong>
</a>
’s top AI exec is predicting that we’ll see the first
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
“commercially useful” quantum computers
</strong>
</a>
in five to seven years.
</li>
<li style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Shares of
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Allbirds
</strong>
</a>
surged yesterday as the former wool sneaker company
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
changed its name to Smartbird as part of its AI pivot
</strong>
</a>
and named former
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Amazon
</strong>
</a>
executive Nadia Carlsten as CEO.
</li>
</ul>
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<li style="Margin:0">
Three big investment themes: Read our analysis on the
<strong>
<a rel="noopener" style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_blank">
structural shifts reshaping markets
</a>
</strong>
.
</li>
</ul>
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Snack Fact of the Day
</span>
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As of March, servings of frozen yogurt rose 26% YoY in the US.
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Thursday
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<ul start="1" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:revert">
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Premarket earnings:
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<strong>
Accenture
</strong>
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and
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Kroger
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1 week ago - hello@snacks.robinhood.com
The Federal Reserve voted to keep rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%Fed Char Kevin Warsh...