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The obvious explanation is usually wrong
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Plus 4 more lessons for your Friday.
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Friday, July 31, 2026
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Ask why a company keeps winning and you'll hear about its size. Size is very, very rarely the reason.
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This week is about the distance between the explanation that feels obvious and the one that holds up. Most expensive mistakes live in that gap.
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Sponsored
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Your next hire might not need to be a hire.
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Every growing company wants faster customer support, better sales coverage, and more responsive service—but adding headcount isn't always the answer.
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<span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0)">
ElevenAgents helps businesses create natural AI voice agents that can answer questions, qualify leads, schedule appointments, and support customers around the clock. Your technical team gets enterprise-grade voice technology
without months of development, while your business gets to market faster.
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Spend less time building infrastructure—and more time building your business.
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1. Early beats hard
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<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6">
An investor who saves for ten years starting at 25 often ends up ahead of one who saves for thirty starting at 35. The extra decade of compounding outweighs twenty extra years of saving.
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<strong style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 16px">
What this means for leaders:
</strong>
<span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 16px">
An investor who saves for ten years starting at 25 often ends up ahead of one who saves for thirty starting at 35. The extra decade of compounding outweighs twenty extra years of saving.
</span>
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<span style="font-family:Arial">
2. Luck looks like strategy
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<span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 16px">
You've looked back at a failed project and thought, I knew that wouldn't work. You didn't. Baruch Fischhoff named the effect in the 1970s, and it distorts nearly every review a company runs after the fact.
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</span>
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<strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6">
What this means for leaders:
</strong>
<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6">
Before your next big call, write down the prediction and the reasoning behind it in a shared doc. When the result lands, grade the reasoning separately from the outcome.
</span>
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The best deals, six days a week
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<a data-linktext="Kinja Deals by The Inventory" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#17253D" target="_blank">
Kinja Deals by The Inventory
</a>
helps shoppers find worthwhile discounts without spending hours searching. Published Monday through Saturday, the newsletter features more than 30 handpicked deals in every issue from Amazon, Walmart, Target, and 300+ other retailers. From tech and home goods to everyday essentials,
gifts, and seasonal finds, it is an easy way to spot the sales worth your time.
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3. Stop reading minds
<span class="ql-cursor">
</span>
</span>
</h1>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="editor-cell-text" colspan="1" style="padding:10px;width:580px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#121721;vertical-align:top;mso-line-height-rule:exactly" width="580">
<div>
<span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 16px">
Most workplace conflict starts with a story you invented about someone else's intentions. Hanlon's Razor gives you a better default: never attribute to malice what ignorance or a bad week explains just as well.
<span class="ql-cursor">
</span>
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<div>
<strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6">
What this means for leaders:
</strong>
<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6">
The next time a colleague's behavior reads as hostile, write down the boring explanation before you respond. Then ask them one question that would tell you which version is true.
<span class="ql-cursor">
</span>
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Read the full lesson
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<!--<![endif]-->
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<a id="pad-desktop" style="display:block;color:#121721">
<img src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fpa-cdn1.pvd.to%252Fs%252Ftcwybw%253Femail%253D947418d3%2540uifeed.com%2526campaign_id%253D11032959%2526device%253Ddesktop%2526v%253D0.14%2526color_scheme%253Dlight/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZwYS1jZG4xLnB2ZCIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODU1MDM0OTQuMTMwNzk0fQ:1wpn1S:C1e9lVkAG4kIWnn_uA0xW_1AnfTPyQwD-qLoN2UAcmY" style="width:100%;max-width:650px;border:0" width="650"/>
</a>
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<td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:600px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;color:#121721" width="600">
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="email-cell-group" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;table-layout:fixed;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto">
<colgroup>
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="editor-cell-text" colspan="1" style="padding:10px;width:580px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;color:#121721" width="580">
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<span style="font-family:Arial">
4. "Big" is not a moat
</span>
</h1>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="editor-cell-text" colspan="1" style="padding:10px;width:580px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#121721;vertical-align:top;mso-line-height-rule:exactly" width="580">
<div>
<span style="line-height: 1.6; font-size: 16px">
Size protects nothing on its own. In 7 Powers, Hamilton Helmer argues that lasting profits come from barriers a rival can see clearly and still not cross, like a business model they would have to cannibalize their own revenue to copy.
<span class="ql-cursor">
</span>
</span>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="editor-cell-text" colspan="1" style="padding:10px;width:580px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#121721;vertical-align:top;mso-line-height-rule:exactly" width="580">
<div>
<strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6">
What this means for leaders:
</strong>
<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6">
Name in one sentence the barrier that stops your closest competitor from copying your best product. If you can't, what you have is a head start with an expiry date.
<span class="ql-cursor">
</span>
</span>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="1" style="padding:10px 5px;vertical-align:top;width:590px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;color:#121721" width="590">
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<tr>
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<tr>
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5. Only three left, forever
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A countdown timer that resets every night still counts down. Your customers learn the trick faster than you think. Cialdini put scarcity among his six drivers of persuasion in 1984, and its power runs entirely on being believed.
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Kahneman and Tversky measured the asymmetry at roughly two to one. A loss lands about twice as hard as a gain of the same size.
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What this means for leaders:
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Audit every scarcity claim in your current marketing and delete any deadline or stock count you can't defend with a real constraint. One fake timer costs more than the sale it was built to close.
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1 month, 2 weeks ago - leadership@e.qz.com
The obvious explanation is usually wrong
Plus 4 more lessons for your Friday. View as a Web page Business News Money & Markets Tech & In...