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   The shadow mortgage market
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   Plus: Why paper is winning.
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               Monday, February 9, 2026
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               Fairfax Media via Getty Images
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Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Good morning, Quartz readers! It’s Shannon Carroll with the Daily Brief. Today, homebuyers are moving the chains with help you don’t see on the broadcast, analog is running a two-minute drill on your attention span, AI capex is calling “go for it” on every series, and Super Bowl Monday is already limping off the field.
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              <span style="font-size:18px;color:#168DD9">
               HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
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               </span>
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              <strong style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               The AI arms race is a capex boom.
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               Four Big Tech giants are projecting about $650 billion in 2026 capex, a scale that’s large enough to show up in GDP and concentrated enough
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="to reshape the business cycle." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;background-color:#FFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;" target="_blank">
               to reshape the business cycle.
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px">
               
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             <div>
              <strong style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               Crypto’s “Trump bump” is now a memory.
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               Bitcoin’s dip below $64,000 (see: forced liquidations, ETF outflows, and a broader risk-asset 
pullback) is reviving arguments about durability and turning into
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="a balance-sheet problem." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;background-color:#FFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;" target="_blank">
               a balance-sheet problem.
              </a>
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                  SPONSORED
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                  <span style="font-size:24px;color:#000000">
                   Turn college prep into a winning strategy
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                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   As a parent, you’re on top of a hundred things already, so “college prep” can turn into a pile of tabs, 
deadlines, and vague advice.
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                 </div>
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                  <br/>
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                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
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                   Empowerly counselors help you and your student complete the right milestones at the right time. It starts with a free consultation call where an admissions advisor learns your student’s target schools, reviews their academics and activities, and gives you a clear, honest read on what to do next.
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                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   From there, you can match with a counselor who understands your 
student’s target schools and intended major, use the Empowerly Score® for data-backed insights, and tap into experience programs like research, internships, and AI projects that can strengthen their application.
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               LOAN AND BEHOLD
              </span>
             </h2>
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               The down payment is still the housing market’s bouncer, and the cover charge keeps rising. With the national median 
existing-home price at $405,400 as of December and mortgage rates still north of 6%, the market is asking buyers to show real cash before it even considers letting them inside.
              </span>
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              <br/>
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               That pressure has produced a parallel system most buyers barely know exists.
              </span>
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              <br/>
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Down payment assistance has quietly turned into a shadow mortgage market — real money, real rules, and real leverage for anyone who knows where to look. Down Payment 
Resource counted almost 2,700 assistance programs in late 2025, offering an average of $18,000 per borrower.
              </span>
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              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Some programs forgive the money slowly if you stay put; others sit behind your main loan as a second mortgage. The goal is durability, not flipping. As DPR CEO Rob Chrane put it, affordability is still the defining challenge — and lowering upfront costs improves who even gets to compete.
              </span>
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              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               The pitch is simple: lower 
upfront costs, lower loan-to-value ratios, better odds of hearing “clear to close.”
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               But this shadow market has a tell: It rewards information access. There’s no master directory, no obvious front door, and almost no marketing. Many programs live inside state agencies or nonprofits that assume someone else is explaining the rules, which means first-generation buyers often don’t even know the game is being played.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               That 
information gap shows up in the math.
              </span>
             </div>
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              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Zillow says the typical household already spends 32.6% of its median income on a typical mortgage, even after a full 20% down payment. That’s why first-time buyers usually put far less down — and why assistance can be the difference between clearing underwriting and quietly exiting Zillow. And Zillow now links to applicable programs on listings — the American dream, with clickable fine print.
              </span>
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              <br/>
             </div>
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               The result is a housing market that now assumes outside help — just unevenly. The down payment is still there, it’s just been outsourced to a maze of programs, forms, and eligibility checks.
              </span>
             </div>
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              <br/>
             </div>
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               In 2026, buying a home still takes money, but it also takes insider knowledge — and the shadow system works best for buyers who know where the shadows are.
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Deborah Kearns has more on the down payment help that exists — and on why buyers keep missing it." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:16px;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Deborah Kearns has more on the down payment help that exists — and on why buyers keep missing it.
              </a>
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                   Semafor Technology
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the industry, each briefing delivers clarity and depth on the tech transforming our world
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                    Subscribe for 
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               DO NOT DISTURBIA
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               People are reaching for things that sit still. Paperbacks are getting dog-eared again, puzzles are leaving half-finished evidence on kitchen tables, and a handwritten note suddenly feels like a flex — mostly because 
they can’t vibrate, refresh, or ask you to rate your experience.
              </span>
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             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Analog’s appeal is obvious to anyone who’s ever tried to read one paragraph on their phone and accidentally emerged 14 minutes later knowing a stranger’s divorce timeline. Attention is starting to feel like something you can lose without ever noticing it’s gone.
              </span>
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              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               So-called “dumbphone” sales rose 25% in 2025, and an Eyesafe report projects someone born in 2025 
will spend 21 years — more than 181,000 hours — looking at screens, a quarter of a life and more than 40% of waking hours. That’s a lot of childhoods spent staring at screens.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               One licensed therapist is warning that excess screen time can contribute to loneliness, isolation, worry, and addiction, which prevents us from living in the moment with family, friends, and daily routines.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               A feed can fill a day and still feel 
empty, like your days are being quietly strip-mined.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Analog sells the opposite experience: limits you can see, endings you can reach, silence you don’t have to troubleshoot. Bob Hutchins, CEO of Human Voice Media, says humans “crave resistance.” Paper pushes back. So does a pen. So does anything that forces you to choose what happens next.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               The hardest place to go quiet is the place that pays you to be online. Experts say 
to put your phone on “do not disturb” mode as much as possible — answering your phone once at 9 p.m. teaches people to expect you to always answer your phone at 9 p.m.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               What’s coming back isn’t quaintness. It’s boundaries you can hold in your hands: a book that doesn’t refresh, a board game that can’t ping you, a letter that can’t ask you to subscribe.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               The future keeps arriving faster, and a growing number of people are 
dealing with it by buying the one thing the internet can’t ship: a little uninterrupted time.
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Brian O’Connell has more on why “do nothing” products are suddenly hot." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:16px;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Brian O’Connell has more on why “do 
nothing” products are suddenly hot.
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                   Empowerly counselors help you and your student complete the right milestones at the right time. It starts with a free consultation call where an admissions advisor learns your student’s target schools, reviews their academics and activities, and gives you a clear, honest read on what to do next.
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                   From there, you can match with a counselor who understands your 
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