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   Trump orders tolls and blockade as Iran fighting resumes
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   Plus: The U.S. paid more in tariff refunds than it collected, and Warsh heads to Congress
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         Tuesday, July 14, 2026
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          Trump reinstates Iran strikes, orders naval blockade and Hormuz shipping tolls
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          President Trump notified 
Congress that U.S. forces had resumed strikes against Iran after a cease-fire effectively collapsed, marking a sharp escalation that directly threatens global energy flows. Trump simultaneously ordered a naval blockade and announced that countries shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be charged for U.S. protection of the waterway, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes.
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          The announcements sent Brent crude surging 9.6% to $83.30 a barrel on Monday, reversing weeks of easing energy prices 
and reigniting inflation concerns that the Federal Reserve had only recently begun to set aside. Economists who had cautiously declared peak inflation now warn that a prolonged shutdown of the strait could push both oil prices and interest rates sharply higher.
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         <p style="margin:12px 0 0;">
          For businesses, the key variables to track are the blockade's enforcement scope, whether Gulf partners accept or resist the proposed transit-fee framework, and whether a fresh diplomatic off-ramp emerges. Any sustained closure of Hormuz would drive up fuel,
shipping, and input costs across virtually every sector of the global economy.
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          Read more at The New York Times ›
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                  More to stream, one bundle
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         The Fed &amp; Inflation
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          Fed Chair Warsh heads to Capitol Hill signaling independence from White House
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          Federal Reserve 
Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, his first major public appearances since taking over the central bank in May. Markets and lawmakers will be watching closely for signals on the rate path: Warsh has made no clear lean toward cuts since taking office, and his early task-force appointments have been read as prioritizing expertise over political alignment. Although Trump was visibly enthusiastic at Warsh's swearing-in ceremony, the new chair's 
governance steps have been seen as charting an independent course. With inflation still above the Fed's 2% target and the Iran conflict threatening to re-ignite energy prices, Warsh's ability to maintain credibility on both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue could prove the defining asset of his tenure.
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          Read more at Reuters ›
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          CPI falls to 3.5% in June as energy prices retreat, but Iran war clouds the outlook
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          The consumer price index rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, down from 4.2% in
May and the first decline in the annual rate since January, when it stood at 2.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Lower energy and gasoline prices drove the deceleration. However, with U.S.-Iran hostilities resuming and oil prices climbing again, economists warn the relief may be short-lived. "The biggest threat is that things unravel and we're back to full-blown war with the Strait shut down," said Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi, noting that scenario could force the Fed to raise borrowing costs.
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          Read more at CNBC ›
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          Gas-driven inflation dip may prove brief as renewed Iran fighting lifts oil prices
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          Falling gasoline prices
drove a likely monthly decline in consumer prices in June, the first such drop in nearly four years, but analysts caution the improvement could quickly reverse. Brent crude jumped 9.6% to $83.30 a barrel on Monday after the U.S. and Iran each claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz. Beyond gas, rising diesel costs have lifted grocery and goods shipping rates, while World Cup activity is expected to have boosted hotel prices. Annual inflation still sits well above the 2.4% level recorded before the Iran war began, keeping affordability a 
political liability for the Trump administration ahead of midterm elections.
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          Read more at The Seattle Times ›
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          Bipartisan Senate group pushes to formalize Social Security reform process before 2032 shortfall
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          A bipartisan group of senators introduced the PROMISE Act, legislation that would 
establish a formal legislative procedure for debating Social Security changes before the program's trust fund runs short. The Social Security trustees' June report projects the fund may cover only 78% of retirement benefits by 2032, affecting more than 71 million Americans who receive monthly payments. Sponsors include Sens. Dick Durbin, Bill Cassidy, John Cornyn, Tim Kaine, Angus King, and Thom Tillis. The bill does not itself alter benefits but would create a pathway to move stalled reform proposals toward a vote, a notable shift in a 
Congress that has largely avoided the issue.
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          Japan walks back economic blueprint language threatening Bank of Japan independence
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          Japan's government will add a footnote to its final economic blueprint 
explicitly referencing the legal requirement to protect Bank of Japan independence in setting monetary policy, TV Tokyo reported Tuesday. The clarification comes after an earlier draft triggered a sell-off in the yen and Japanese government bonds, as markets interpreted the language as pressure from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration to delay rate hikes. The final blueprint will call on the BOJ to guide policy "to achieve stable price rises" while making clear the government does not intend to interfere, with cabinet approval 
expected next week.
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          Read more at The Charlotte Observer ›
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          Bank of England governor warns U.S. cannot secure AI frontier without global cooperation
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        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          Bank of England 
Governor Andrew Bailey called for coordinated international action on AI risk, arguing the U.S. cannot adequately defend against cyber threats or establish AI safety standards on its own. Speaking ahead of the annual Mansion House dinner in London, Bailey said governments must work together to prevent bad actors from accessing powerful and potentially destabilizing AI models. His remarks come after the Trump administration temporarily barred foreigners from using Anthropic's Claude Mythos model, a move that frustrated allies seeking a joint 
approach before the ban was lifted weeks later.
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         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at The Guardian ›
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        <div style="font-size:14px;letter-spacing:0px;font-weight:700;color:#1a2d47;border-bottom:2px solid #0b1f3a;padding-bottom:6px;">
         Iran &amp; Oil Shock
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       <td style="padding:12px 24px 12px;">
        <h3 style="margin:0 0 8px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:24px;line-height:1.3;color:#0b1f3a;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          U.S. paid out more in tariff refunds last month than it collected in tariff revenue
         </a>
        </h3>
        <div style="font-size:17px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          The United States paid more in 
tariff refunds last month than it collected in tariff revenue, a striking reversal that complicates the administration's argument that its trade levies are generating meaningful fiscal gains. The net-negative outcome underscores the growing cost of exclusions, drawbacks, and administrative concessions embedded in the current tariff regime. For investors and executives modeling the fiscal and trade-policy outlook, the figure signals that headline tariff rates and actual revenue collected are diverging significantly, with implications for budget 
projections and the credibility of tariffs as a long-term revenue tool.
         </p>
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         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at Quartz ›
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        <h4 style="margin:0 0 6px;font-size:19px;line-height:1.35;color:#0b1f3a;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          Trump reverses course, says no country should charge transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz
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         <p style="margin:0;">
          President Trump said Tuesday that he does not 
believe any country should charge a fee for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, walking back a proposal he made just one day earlier to impose a 20% toll on cargo passing through the waterway under U.S. military protection. Trump acknowledged the fairness concern underlying the original idea but dropped the specific fee proposal, saying he would instead pursue trade and investment deals with Gulf countries. The reversal within 24 hours adds fresh uncertainty about U.S. policy governing one of the world's most critical shipping 
lanes.
         </p>
        </div>
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         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at Reuters ›
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          Poll: 79% of Americans expect Iran war to drag on, 60% brace for higher gas prices
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        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,019 U.S. adults released Monday found 
that 79% expect U.S. military involvement in Iran to continue for an extended period, while just 18% believe it will end quickly. Only 37% approved of the strikes, and roughly half said the war has not been worth its costs. Separately, 60% of respondents expect gas prices to rise over the next year as a direct result of the conflict. The results underscore the political liability the war poses for Republicans heading into midterm elections, with affordability concerns already topping voter priorities.
         </p>
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0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at USA TODAY ›
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         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          U.S. strikes Iran for fourth straight day as Hormuz naval blockade takes effect
         </a>
        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          U.S. forces carried out additional airstrikes on Iranian military targets for the fourth 
consecutive day Tuesday, targeting what a U.S. official described as "emerging threats," according to The Hill. The strikes coincided with the reimposition of a U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, effective 4 p.m. EDT, targeting ships traveling to or from Iranian ports or carrying Iranian cargo. The blockade covers a chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil supply flows, keeping energy markets on edge and complicating the logistics of any near-term diplomatic resolution.
         </p>
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        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at The Hill ›
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         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          WFP warns Sudan faces deeper hunger crisis as Iran war drives up farm costs
         </a>
        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          The World Food Programme warned 
Tuesday that Sudan risks sliding back into deeper famine as conflict, reduced donor aid, and rising agricultural costs linked to Hormuz trade disruption converge. Roughly 5 million people in Sudan already face emergency or catastrophic hunger levels, and WFP is assisting 1.5 million fewer people than before as donor funding falls. Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said more than 100,000 people remain in famine-like conditions, and disrupted trade routes are pushing up farming costs during the critical planting season, threatening to undo 
hard-won gains.
         </p>
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        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at Reuters ›
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         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          Key Halkbank witness Reza Zarrab sentenced to time served after cooperation with U.S. prosecutors
         </a>
        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          Reza Zarrab, the Turkish-Iranian
gold trader who pleaded guilty in 2017 to conspiring to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran, was sentenced to time served Tuesday by U.S. District Judge Richard Berman in Manhattan federal court. Zarrab's cooperation proved central to the U.S. case against Halkbank, the Turkish state-run lender separately charged in 2019 with secretly transferring $20 billion in restricted Iranian funds. Berman had earlier dismissed criminal charges against Halkbank following a deal with the Justice Department. The case has been a persistent irritant in U.S.-Turkey 
relations.
         </p>
        </div>
        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at Reuters ›
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        <div style="font-size:14px;letter-spacing:0px;font-weight:700;color:#1a2d47;border-bottom:2px solid #0b1f3a;padding-bottom:6px;">
         Markets, Regulation &amp; Midterms
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        <h3 style="margin:0 0 8px;font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:24px;line-height:1.3;color:#0b1f3a;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          Federal judge finds Trump misused $10 billion IRS lawsuit to extract personal benefits, refers lawyers for discipline
         </a>
        </h3>
        <div style="font-size:17px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          Miami-based U.S. District Judge Kathleen Williams ruled Monday that President Trump improperly used a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS to extract personal benefits, voiding a settlement agreement and referring Trump's personal lawyer Alejandro Brito and senior Justice Department officials who signed off on the deal to state bar authorities for potential ethics violations. In a 56-page ruling, Williams concluded that attorneys on both sides shared interests rather than opposing ones as required by law, and that the case was 
never a genuine legal dispute but rather an attempt to confer immunity on people and entities affiliated with the president. The ruling adds to a growing record of judicial rebukes of the administration's use of legal processes for political purposes.
         </p>
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        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at The Charlotte Observer 
›
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        <h4 style="margin:0 0 6px;font-size:19px;line-height:1.35;color:#0b1f3a;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          ZTE unit among Chinese firms cleared to buy Nvidia H200 chips under new U.S. licenses
         </a>
        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          A unit of ZTE 
Corp and server maker Maginfra have received U.S. approval to purchase Nvidia's H200 chips, while a Kingsoft subsidiary was cleared for comparable AMD chips, according to documents and two sources familiar with the matter. The licenses expand the known set of Chinese companies cleared for advanced AI chip imports beyond China's largest internet groups and major electronics distributors. The H200 is one of Nvidia's most powerful chips used to train and run large AI models and sits at the center of U.S.-China technology competition. ZTE, 
Maginfra, Kingsoft, Nvidia, AMD, and the Commerce Department did not respond to requests for comment.
         </p>
        </div>
        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at Reuters ›
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        <h4 style="margin:0 0 6px;font-size:19px;line-height:1.35;color:#0b1f3a;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          New York imposes one-year moratorium on large AI data center construction
         </a>
        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          New York became the first U.S. state to halt construction of large new
AI data centers, imposing a one-year moratorium on facilities consuming 50 megawatts or more of power. Governor Kathy Hochul cited rising utility bills, water depletion, and community strain as justifications, and said she would also pursue legislation repealing sales tax exemptions for large data centers. The state's Department of Environmental Conservation will halt discretionary permitting while officials develop environmental impact standards. The move sets a precedent as dozens of states weigh similar restrictions on the energy-intensive 
infrastructure underpinning the AI build-out.
         </p>
        </div>
        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at USA TODAY ›
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         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          Ken Griffin commits $40 million to Republican midterm efforts with Senate races at the center
         </a>
        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          Citadel founder Ken 
Griffin has invested roughly $40 million in this year's midterm campaigns, a total that could double by November, according to two people familiar with the giving. His largest single contribution so far is $10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Griffin's spending reflects a megadonor strategy focused on defending and shaping Senate Republican majorities, signaling that high-dollar donors see the upper chamber as the higher-stakes battleground heading into November.
         </p>
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        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at The Wall Street Journal ›
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         <a style="color: #0b1f3a; text-decoration: none;">
          Americans for Prosperity warns Republicans that economic credibility, not SAVE Act, will decide midterms
         </a>
        </h4>
        <div style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;color:#1a1a1a;text-align:left;">
         <p style="margin:0;">
          Americans for Prosperity Action is cautioning 
Republicans that failure to regain voter trust on affordability could cost the party both the House and Senate in November. AFP president Emily Seidel told the group that candidates discussing anything other than cost-of-living issues are losing ground with voters, specifically warning against prioritizing Trump's SAVE America Act on the campaign trail. The message directly conflicts with activists who argue the voting-related legislation is essential to motivating the Republican base. AFP executive director Nathan Nascimento added that 
ordinarily reliable GOP voters feel their economic concerns are going unheard.
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         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at The Hill ›
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          Trump invokes Graham's name to push Senate toward crypto regulation vote
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         <p style="margin:0;">
          President Trump called on the Senate Monday to pass the Clarity Act, a 
cryptocurrency regulation bill, invoking the memory of Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died over the weekend of an aortic dissection at age 71. Graham did not serve on the committees that drafted the legislation and was primarily focused on foreign policy before his death. The Clarity Act is a top legislative priority for Trump and Republican leaders ahead of midterm elections and appears on track for a Senate floor vote before the August recess. Trump framed passage as a matter of competition with China in both crypto and AI.
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        <div style="padding:8px 0 0;text-align:left;">
         <a style="color: #1a2d47; text-decoration: none; font-weight: 600; font-size: 14px;">
          Read more at The Hill ›
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         Quartz Washington · A daily briefing on U.S. politics for business.
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