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   The US jobs report and the investing week ahead.
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Hire Stakes
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               The US jobs report is out this week – and with the Federal Reserve worrying over inflation and the markets nervous, this one could pack quite a punch.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: US jobs report gets down to business
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The US jobs report – tracking how many jobs the world’s biggest economy adds each month – is routine viewing for investors and economists. And this Friday’s edition might just be anything but.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="dqkkr" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        See, while the labor market has more – or maybe less – held up, there are some real concerns. Hiring has cooled: June saw just 57,000 jobs added, fewer than expected and a step down from earlier in the year, while more Americans dropped out of the workforce altogether. Economists think July brought only a slight pickup, to around 90,000, with unemployment expected to nudge up to 4.3%. In short, this report could show if the engine of the US economy is just sputtering or really stalling.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="o2st" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Normally, a so-so jobs report wouldn’t move markets too much. But this one comes at kind of a tense moment. Let’s start with the
                        <b>
                         Federal Reserve
                        </b>
                        . Last week, America's central bank left interest
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         rates unchanged
                        </a>
                        , at 3.5% to 3.75%, but it was a fractious meeting: three officials broke ranks and voted to raise rates, still worried inflation isn't beaten. New chair Kevin Warsh has described inflation as a “choice” that can be actively managed and not simply endured – implying that he’s in no rush to cut rates just yet. So there's no promise of relief on the table, plus a vocal camp is pushing for borrowing costs to go higher, not lower.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="aar4j" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Then there's the stock market, which just had a nasty scare. Shares in the chipmakers powering the artificial-intelligence boom tumbled last week, with
                        <b>
                         Nvidia
                        </b>
                        alone shedding almost $280 billion of its value in a single day – a record for any US company. Investors are fretting that the vast sums being poured into AI might not pay off, and that the shares have simply run too hot. So after a year of AI euphoria, greed flipped to fear – fast.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="grl2" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Put it all together, and you can see why Friday's jobs number carries so much weight. With the Fed offering no comfort and tech stocks wobbling, the labor market is what investors are leaning on to tell them where the economy – and interest rates – head next. And it's a genuine tightrope. Too strong a number, and the Fed's hawks get louder, snuffing out any hope of rate cuts. Too weak, and investors will worry the economy is cracking just as the AI trade that's carried the market is starting to flag. What they really want is something in between: soft enough to keep the Fed calm, but not so soft it signals trouble.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="f75jk" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        One last thing to watch, tucked inside the report: wage growth. It's a figure the Fed cares immensely about, since fast-rising pay keeps inflation alive.
                       </p>
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                        With markets this jittery, Friday’s report could set the mood for weeks. No pressure.
                       </p>
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                        Join Finimize Pro
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                         Be your own financial advisor
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                        If you’re managing
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                         your own portfolio
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                        , you already know that the job isn’t just pressing “buy”.
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                        It’s sorting
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                        from the utter nonsense.
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                        With
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                         Finimize Pro
                        </a>
                        , you get actionable investing ideas from experienced analysts, model portfolios, and regular updates on every live idea, plus, full access to our research archive.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="em3g7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        It’s built for people who want to manage their own money and outthink the market – with proven research and cutting-edge insights.
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                       <p data-block-key="2pqmh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Best part: it’s been known to
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                         pay for itself.
                        </a>
                        Since launch in 2024, Finimize Pro ideas have returned
                        <b>
                         32% on average
                        </b>
                        , beaten their benchmarks by
                        <b>
                         18 percentage points
                        </b>
                        , and posted a
                        <b>
                         69% hit rate
                        </b>
                        (meaning, yep, most calls made money).
                       </p>
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                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         <b>
                          Upgrade to Pro
                         </b>
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               <tbody>
                <tr>
                 <td style="vertical-align:top;padding:25px;padding-top:16px;padding-bottom:16px;">
                  <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%">
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                       <p class="content-box-header mb-4" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; font-weight: 900; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
                        <li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Monday
                         </b>
                         : China purchasing managers index – manufacturing (Caixin, July), US manufacturing activity – ISM (July).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Palantir.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="bsfec" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday
                         </b>
                         : US job openings – JOLTS (June).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Caterpillar, AMD, Pfizer.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="f8i6s" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday
                         </b>
                         : China purchasing managers index – services (Caixin, July), US services activity – ISM (July), US private payrolls – ADP (July).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Disney, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="97f68" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday
                         </b>
                         : Eurozone retail sales (June).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="6ke86" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday
                         </b>
                         : US employment report – payrolls (July), China trade balance (July).
                        </li>
                       </ul>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6z208" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        First, a fresh twist in the US’s trade war with… well, everyone. The country slapped
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         new tariffs
                        </a>
                        of 10% to 12.5% on around 60 of its trading partners – taxing almost everything America imports. These tariffs replace an earlier round the Supreme Court had struck down. And someone’s going to have to pay for them. US companies will likely eat some of the cost, but ultimately, it’ll be American consumers who suffer the most, to the tune of an estimated $900 per household this year. That’s going to nudge prices up just as the Fed is trying to tamp inflation down, with the added excitement of straining ties with virtually
                        <i>
                         every
                        </i>
                        country America trades with. Yikes.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="eaju4" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Europe, meanwhile, got a rare piece of good news: the eurozone economy grew a better-than-expected 0.4% last quarter, dodging the recession some had feared. The snag is inflation, which ticked up to 2.9% in July as the renewed Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher. For the European Central Bank, that's a reason to stay tough. It's already raised rates this year to tackle inflation, and with growth holding up, it has little reason to stop – markets expect another hike before 2026 is out. That sets it apart from its peers: the Bank of England and Bank of Japan both left rates on hold last week, joining the Fed in a collective wait-and-see.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7na9v" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The bigger drama last week was over the price of the AI boom. Four tech giants reported earnings in the space of two days, and it was a mixed bag.
                        <b>
                         Microsoft
                        </b>
                        was the
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         clear winner
                        </a>
                        : its Azure cloud grew 43%, its Copilot assistant added millions of paying users, and it managed all that while spending slightly less on AI infrastructure than expected – a sign the investment is finally paying off.
                        <b>
                         Amazon
                        </b>
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         impressed
                        </a>
                        too, with its AWS cloud arm growing 37% and easing worries about its own hefty spending.
                        <b>
                         Meta
                        </b>
                        was
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         the laggard
                        </a>
                        : its ad sales grew nicely, but soft guidance and plans to spend
                        <i>
                         at least
                        </i>
                        $130 billion on AI this year left investors questioning whether it will pay off.
                        <b>
                         Apple
                        </b>
                        was more
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         mixed
                        </a>
                        – strong iPhone sales, offset by softer growth in its high-margin services business and weaker demand in China. Markets are no longer dazzled by AI spending – they want to see it turn into profit, and right now, Microsoft is offering the clearest proof.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="11eih" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Nothing captured investors’ anxiety around the whole AI thing better than
                        <b>
                         Nvidia's
                        </b>
                        latest move. The chip giant is in talks to
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         guarantee up to $250 billion
                        </a>
                        of financing for a huge new data centre built for
                        <b>
                         OpenAI
                        </b>
                        , the maker of ChatGPT. Impressive – but it also raised eyebrows, because it looks a lot like "circular financing": Nvidia effectively helping to fund a customer that will then spend the money on Nvidia's own chips. If AI demand ever disappoints, arrangements like this could unravel fast – which is part of why markets got so nervous.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7eaqv" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        And yet the appetite for anything AI is far from dead – just look east.
                        <b>
                         CXMT
                        </b>
                        , China's answer to the memory-chip makers powering AI,
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         soared nearly 470%
                        </a>
                        on its stock-market debut, the country's biggest listing in over 15 years. It signals two things at once: China's determination to build its own chip champions rather than lean on the West, and the fact that – for all the nerves in the US – investors are still scrambling for a piece of the AI story wherever they can find it.
                       </p>
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                    Your Finimize Analyst team
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