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   War's inflation shock
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   Plus: Apple's race to be the largest U.S. company.
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          Thursday, July 9, 2026
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          AI investment is masking how badly the Iran war is hurting growth
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          Inflation is speeding up again just as global growth loses steam. The International Monetary Fund, a 190-country lender 
and forecaster, blames the war in the Middle East for both trends. The conflict has jolted energy markets and snapped a two-year stretch of slowing inflation. Grocery bills, fuel costs, and corporate budgets all hang on how long the fight drags on.
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          The fund trimmed this year's growth forecast to 3.0%, a tenth below its April estimate, while its 2027 outlook climbed to 3.4%, a half-point upgrade. The IMF also says headline inflation will hit 4.7% in 2026, up sharply from 4.1% last year, before retreating to 3.9% in 
2027.
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          AI-related spending prevented a sharper slowdown in the broader economy. South Korea posted an annualized growth rate of 7.5% in the first quarter, a number the fund called remarkable given its reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Energy importers outside the AI supply chain face the steepest cuts.
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          The fund built its outlook on a return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by mid-July. President Donald Trump has since declared the ceasefire with Iran dead.
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           Will the ceasefire's collapse push inflation higher?
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                            Yes. Oil prices will spike again
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                           <!--[if mso]><a 
href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10961358/222404108/10131512/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwNy0wOQ&x=98b86b94" target="_blank" style="-webkit-border-radius: 6px; -moz-border-radius: 6px; border-radius: 6px; color: #FFFFFF; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;  border: none; display: block; ">Yes. Oil prices will spike 
again</a><![endif]-->
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                            No. The war's impact is priced in
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                           <!--[if mso]><a 
href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10961358/222404108/10131513/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwNy0wOQ&x=3c2414c6" target="_blank" style="-webkit-border-radius: 6px; -moz-border-radius: 6px; border-radius: 6px; color: #FFFFFF; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;  border: none; display: block; ">No. The war's impact is priced 
in</a><![endif]-->
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                            Only if the Hormuz stays closed
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                           <!--<![endif]-->
                           <!--[if mso]><a 
href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10961358/222404108/10131514/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwNy0wOQ&x=19c4eaae" target="_blank" style="-webkit-border-radius: 6px; -moz-border-radius: 6px; border-radius: 6px; color: #FFFFFF; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;  border: none; display: block; ">Only if the Hormuz stays 
closed</a><![endif]-->
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           Here's what you need to know
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             <a aria-label="Bloomberg / Getty Images" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank" title="Bloomberg / Getty Images">
              <img alt="Bloomberg / Getty Images" class="img100" data-linktype="Normal" data-target="_blank" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fqz.com%252Fcdn-cgi%252Fimage%252Fwidth%253D640%252Cheight%253D360%252Cfit%253Dcover%252Cquality%253D85%252Cformat%253Dauto%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fassets.qz.com%252Fmedia%252FGettyImages-2279294779.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZxei5jb20lMkZjZCIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODM1OTIwNzEuMDk5MzIxNH0:1whlm3:ZBcjW8s0uiCV9H7Hh8BEQJ4JyRRSfdOYeJQdbZBvJqc" style="width:200px;max-height:338px;vertical-align:middle;border:0" width="200"/>
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               <a data-linktext="Trump's renewed Iran strikes rattle global financial markets." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Trump's renewed Iran strikes rattle global financial markets.
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              </strong>
              President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over after accusing Tehran of attacking commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz. 
Oil prices jumped and other major stock indexes fell again on fears of higher inflation.
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$30 billion to Broadcom for U.S. chip production." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Apple commits $30 billion to Broadcom for U.S. chip production.
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              </strong>
              Broadcom will spend $1.5 billion upgrading its Fort Collins, Colo., plant to build radio frequency and wireless parts for iPhones through 2031. The agreement marks Apple's largest investment yet in American manufacturing.
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              <strong style="color:#105C8E">
               <a data-linktext="Warsh's first Fed minutes reveal a deeply divided committee." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Warsh's first Fed minutes reveal a deeply divided committee.
               </a>
              </strong>
              Though policymakers voted 12-0 to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, some charted a path for cuts while others favored hikes. Fed 
Chair Kevin Warsh called the split a "family fight." Persistent inflation is fueling the divide.
             </div>
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