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   The investing week ahead |
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Project Hail Mary
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               We’re about to find out whether company earnings can pull off a last-ditch save for investor sentiment.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: The big stories
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Earnings season is underway, and it’s about to get a lot more suspenseful. Over the next few days, a wave of big-name companies will report results – from tech fixtures like
                        <b>
                         IBM
                        </b>
                        and
                        <b>
                         Intel
                        </b>
                        to industrial heavyweights like
                        <b>
                         GE
                        </b>
                        ,
                        <b>
                         Boeing
                        </b>
                        , and
                        <b>
                         3M
                        </b>
                        .
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="d7263" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         They’re arriving on the scene at a pretty tense moment.
                        </b>
                        The S&amp;P 500 just logged its worst quarter since 2022, as the war in Iran pushed oil prices higher and stoked new inflation fears.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6o11u" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         These results aren’t expected to be blockbusters.
                        </b>
                        But tax incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and a weaker dollar – which boosts the value of Corporate America’s overseas sales – should give some bottom lines a boost. All in all, S&amp;P 500 firms are expected to show a 12% bump in profits last quarter, compared to a year ago, the weakest performance in almost a year. And if you strip out the tech sector, the picture goes real dark: just 3% growth – a low not seen in two years.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="cmgu6" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         Even so, those forecasts have a habit of being overly pessimistic.
                        </b>
                        So S&amp;P 500 companies have a long record of beating analyst expectations, and that’s what they’ve done in 37 of the past 40 quarters. The only exceptions came during the pandemic-distorted period between 2020 and 2022. If this season follows the usual pattern, FactSet’s math suggests the final earnings growth figure could land closer to a healthy 18%.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="a5oae" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        ⚠️ That said, companies did have a tougher-than-usual quarter to navigate. Oil prices jumped, tariff uncertainty ramped up again, and worries about AI disruption loomed over certain business models. And that’s made this earnings season feel less like a routine check-up and more like a stress test.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="1sc9e" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🔺 From a stocks standpoint, energy was the only sector that saw gains in March, and earnings expectations there have swung well higher. Before the war, Wall Street expected those companies’ earnings to shrink by 8.5% versus a year earlier, according to Bloomberg. Now analysts see a nearly 8%
                        <i>
                         increase
                        </i>
                        for the period. The flip side is that steeper oil and gas prices squeeze a lot of other sectors, and industrial companies – like the ones reporting this week – are particularly exposed. That’s because their factories and transportation fleets rely heavily on fossil fuels.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="56etp" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        ▶ Tech, though, is its own thing. Investors have increasingly been putting distance between themselves and the sector – partly out of fear that AI could disrupt existing software business models. Now, with the industry’s average valuation at its lowest level in years and expectations reset, tech has a chance to reclaim its market-leading position – but only if its results deliver.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="9o1q" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        ⚠️ And there’s another big overhang here: trade policy. The US president’s 10% global tariff is set to expire in July, so the clock is ticking for the next trade pivot. All of that will put tariff guidance – and uncertainty – front and center again.
                       </p>
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
                        <li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         China one- and five-year loan prime rates announcement.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="drksm" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         UK employment report (February), US retail sales (March).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         3M, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Intuitive Surgical.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="6sf7o" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         Japan trade balance (March), UK inflation (March), eurozone consumer confidence (April).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         AT&amp;T, Boeing, CME Group, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, IBM, Lam Research, ServiceNow.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="66isj" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         Japan PMIs (April), eurozone PMIs (April), UK PMIs (April), US PMIs (April).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         American Express, Blackstone, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Intel.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="8ojet" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         Japan inflation (March), UK retail sales (March).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Procter &amp; Gamble, SLB.
                        </li>
                       </ul>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6z208" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🌎 The US
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="ah2ad" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="de0oo" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         Wall Street’s
                        </a>
                        trading desks just had a massive quarter.
                        <b>
                         JPMorgan
                        </b>
                        ,
                        <b>
                         Citigroup
                        </b>
                        ,
                        <b>
                         Goldman Sachs
                        </b>
                        , and others raked in record revenues as market volatility – fueled by the Iran conflict and policy uncertainty – kept clients busy. The catch is that the same turmoil boosting trading is also clouding the broader outlook and threatening to derail another key moneymaker: dealmaking.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="2p4rd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="ecur" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🌍
                        <b>
                         Europe
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="bpjqn" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="8tvq2" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Chipmaking equipment supplier
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         <b>
                          ASML
                         </b>
                        </a>
                        raised its 2026 sales growth forecast to up to 22%, proving that Big Tech’s thirst for computing power is nowhere near being quenched. While first-quarter results exceeded expectations, a light second-quarter outlook had investors worried that the firm won’t be able to ramp up capacity quickly enough to take full advantage of the AI boom. And those fears sent shares in the Dutch firm lower.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="duqeh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="eh6l6" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         <b>
                          Hermès
                         </b>
                        </a>
                        did something it almost never does: it missed. Quarterly sales came in at a less-than-expected €4.1 billion ($4.8 billion), and the culprit was a slowdown in travel. Airspace closures related to the war in the Middle East kept wealthy shoppers closer to home, denting sales in luxury hotspots like Dubai. And the weakness echoed across the sector, with
                        <b>
                         LVMH
                        </b>
                        and
                        <b>
                         Kering
                        </b>
                        also reporting soft results, dimming hopes for a 2026 rebound.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="dmf2s" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="5ac53" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🌏
                        <b>
                         Asia
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="ced8b" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="eg0u9" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Taiwan’s stock market just
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         leapfrogged
                        </a>
                        the UK’s to become the world’s seventh biggest, hitting $4.13 trillion. The engine here is AI and demand for advanced chips from heavyweight TSMC, which alone accounts for nearly half of the Taiwanese market. The chipmaker just posted a blockbuster quarter, with profits up 58% and revenue up 35%, which underscored its central role in the tech boom and pushed its shares to record highs.
                       </p>
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