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  <div style="display:none;max-height:0;max-width:0;opacity:0;overflow:hidden;mso-hide:all;font-size:1px;line-height:1px;color:transparent;">
   Cardboard: the great equalizer between us and our feline 
companions.‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
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          <div>
           Wednesday, July 15, 2026
          </div>
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        <tr class="trpad10" data-row-uuid="2f6bb4f8-eeab-4c70-b146-d553672b6cb8" style="">
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          <h1 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:24px;font-weight:bold;color:#17233E;line-height:1.25">
           The box index
          </h1>
         </td>
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        <tr class="trpad0" data-row-uuid="0f898bc2-a50e-4ee0-87bd-2300001642e0" style="">
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          <div>
           <p>
            Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan watched cardboard. He treated box shipments as one of his favorite reads on where the economy was heading, and the practice predates him. "This is a metric that has been tracked for a really long time. At least thirty years," says Virginia Tech economist
            <a>
             Jadrian Wooten
            </a>
            .
           </p>
          </div>
          <div>
           <p>
            The reason sits in what a box is for. A corrugated box has one job, holding a product
that doesn't exist yet. Manufacturers order the cardboard weeks before the goods get made and months before they reach a shelf, so a box order is closer to an intention than a sale. Anticipate a strong quarter and orders rise; brace for a weak one and they dry up fast. Jobs and inflation reports describe a month already gone. The box moves first, which makes it a bet on a quarter that hasn't happened yet.
           </p>
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10px;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:16px">
          <h2 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:20px;font-weight:bold">
           <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
            By the Digits
           </span>
          </h2>
         </td>
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        <tr class="trpad30" data-row-uuid="1fb86db5-7254-4d4e-a10a-b6b316fdc7b1" style="background-color:#EDF0F4">
         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="background-color:#EDF0F4;width:100%;line-height:1.67;font-size:16px;padding:15px 30px 
5px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
          <h3 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold">
           <a style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
            381 billion
           </a>
          </h3>
         </td>
        </tr>
        <tr class="trpad30" data-row-uuid="25a564eb-124d-4fd9-a0e9-6874d799af32" style="background-color:#EDF0F4">
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          <div style="line-height: 1.7">
           <span style="color:#555D68">
            <p>
             square feet of cardboard shipped in the U.S. in 2024:
            </p>
           </span>
          </div>
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          <!--[if mso]><img src="//editor.ne16.com/spacer.gif" style="mso-hide:all;border:0;"><![endif]-->
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        <tr class="trpad30" data-row-uuid="b8544188-c9a1-49d6-8535-02e9e2462538" style="background-color:#EDF0F4">
         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="background-color:#EDF0F4;width:100%;line-height:1.67;font-size:16px;padding:15px 30px 5px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
          <h3 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto 
Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold">
           <a style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
            5%
           </a>
          </h3>
         </td>
        </tr>
        <tr class="trpad30" data-row-uuid="06ee395c-037e-4086-bc0d-e7213526c4a1" style="background-color:#EDF0F4">
         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="background-color:#EDF0F4;width:100%;line-height:1.67;font-size:16px;padding:5px 30px 15px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;vertical-align:top;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
          <div style="line-height: 1.7">
           <span style="color:#555D68">
            <p>
             year-on-year drop in International Paper's U.S. box shipments in Q2 2025, a fourth straight quarterly decline:
            </p>
           </span>
          </div>
         </td>
        </tr>
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          <!--[if mso]><img src="//editor.ne16.com/spacer.gif" style="mso-hide:all;border:0;"><![endif]-->
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        <tr class="trpad30" data-row-uuid="e82a04fa-cee7-401c-9be3-7c365a17ff07" style="background-color:#EDF0F4">
         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="background-color:#EDF0F4;width:100%;line-height:1.67;font-size:16px;padding:15px 30px 5px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
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           <a style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
            9%
           </a>
          </h3>
         </td>
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          <div style="line-height: 1.7">
           <span style="color:#555D68">
            <p>
             cardboard capacity 
pullback in 2025, double the pace of the 2009 downturn:
            </p>
           </span>
          </div>
         </td>
        </tr>
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           <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border:0 #9B9B9B;height:2px;width:100%;text-align:center;background-color:#256A98;color:#9B9B9B;margin:0 auto;border-left-width:0;border-right-width:0">
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          <h3 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold">
           A ruler slipped, and the signal got countable
          </h3>
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        <tr class="trpad0" data-row-uuid="5f4a10e8-9496-4ca9-a431-3bd9b073785d" style="">
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          <div>
           <p>
            The signal only works because a box is countable, and a box is countable because of an accident in a Brooklyn print shop.
            <a>
             Robert Gair
            </a>
            , a Scottish-born Brooklyn printer, was running an order of paper seed bags when a metal ruler fell out of position and cut the bags instead of creasing them. He realized one machine could cut and crease in a single pass, and prefabricated boxes could be mass-produced. 
Sources put the accident in either
            <a>
             1879
            </a>
            or
            <a>
             1890
            </a>
            ; the record never settled it.
           </p>
          </div>
          <div>
           <p>
            <a>
             Kellogg's
            </a>
            , among the first to box its cereal with Gair's pre-cut cartons, moved groceries out of bulk barrels and onto 
shelves in identical, stackable, printable containers. That standardization is what makes the modern signal readable. A box is a box, countable in square feet, whether it holds sneakers or breakfast, and an indicator only works if you can add it up the same way every quarter.
           </p>
          </div>
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10px;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:16px">
          <h2 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:20px;font-weight:bold">
           <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
            Brief History
           </span>
          </h2>
         </td>
        </tr>
        <tr class="" data-row-uuid="b8e22605-fac9-4edd-8a62-5f44c850338a" style="">
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             <td style="width:110px;vertical-align:top;padding:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;border-left:3px solid #256A98;background-color:#EDF0F4" valign="top" width="110">
              <div style="padding:14px 12px 14px 16px;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.2">
               1960–1974
              </div>
             </td>
             <td style="vertical-align:top;padding:14px 16px 14px 18px;background-color:#EDF0F4;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;color:#555D68" valign="top">
              <p>
               Corrugated box makers run a nationwide price-fixing conspiracy, later named as 37 defendants in federal litigation.
              </p>
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td colspan="2" style="height:8px;line-height:8px;font-size:1px;background-color:#FFFFFF">
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td style="width:110px;vertical-align:top;padding:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;border-left:3px solid #256A98;background-color:#EDF0F4" valign="top" width="110">
              <div style="padding:14px 12px 14px 16px;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.2">
               1980
              </div>
             </td>
             <td style="vertical-align:top;padding:14px 16px 14px 18px;background-color:#EDF0F4;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;color:#555D68" valign="top">
              <p>
               Antitrust settlements and a jury verdict recover roughly $500 million for box buyers.
              </p>
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td colspan="2" style="height:8px;line-height:8px;font-size:1px;background-color:#FFFFFF">
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td style="width:110px;vertical-align:top;padding:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;border-left:3px solid #256A98;background-color:#EDF0F4" valign="top" width="110">
              <div style="padding:14px 12px 14px 16px;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.2">
               2017
              </div>
             </td>
             <td style="vertical-align:top;padding:14px 16px 14px 18px;background-color:#EDF0F4;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;color:#555D68" valign="top">
              <p>
               International Paper and two rivals settle a cardboard price-fixing class action for $354 million.
              </p>
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td colspan="2" style="height:8px;line-height:8px;font-size:1px;background-color:#FFFFFF">
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td style="width:110px;vertical-align:top;padding:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;border-left:3px solid #256A98;background-color:#EDF0F4" valign="top" width="110">
              <div style="padding:14px 12px 14px 16px;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.2">
               2024–2025
              </div>
             </td>
             <td style="vertical-align:top;padding:14px 16px 14px 18px;background-color:#EDF0F4;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;color:#555D68" valign="top">
              <p>
               Three mergers worth $20 billion, the highest cardboard M&amp;A on record, leave three firms controlling about 65% of U.S. capacity.
              </p>
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td colspan="2" style="height:8px;line-height:8px;font-size:1px;background-color:#FFFFFF">
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td style="width:110px;vertical-align:top;padding:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;border-left:3px solid #256A98;background-color:#EDF0F4" valign="top" width="110">
              <div style="padding:14px 12px 14px 16px;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.2">
               July 2025
              </div>
             </td>
             <td style="vertical-align:top;padding:14px 16px 14px 18px;background-color:#EDF0F4;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.6;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;color:#555D68" valign="top">
              <p>
               A federal suit accuses the largest producers of coordinated price hikes of about 30% since late 2020.
              </p>
             </td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
             <td colspan="2" style="height:8px;line-height:8px;font-size:1px;background-color:#FFFFFF">
             </td>
            </tr>
           </tbody>
          </table>
         </td>
        </tr>
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           <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border:0 #9B9B9B;height:2px;width:100%;text-align:center;background-color:#256A98;color:#9B9B9B;margin:0 auto;border-left-width:0;border-right-width:0">
            <tbody>
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            </tbody>
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         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 0;vertical-align:top;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:16px">
          <h3 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold">
           A $40 billion business, consolidating fast
          </h3>
         </td>
        </tr>
        <tr class="trpad0" data-row-uuid="b3db657c-b55a-4854-8c00-23052f87bdfe" style="">
         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 0;line-height:1.7;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;vertical-align:top;font-size:16px;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
          <div>
           <p>
            U.S. corrugated shipments totaled
            <a>
             381 billion
            </a>
            square feet in 2024, worth $40.8 billion. It's a mature, low-margin trade, and the index built on top of it works by aggregation: total the square footage across the industry and you're reading the collective forecast of everyone who makes physical things. That reading is cleanest when the forecasters are many and independent.
           </p>
          </div>
          <div>
           <p>
            Consolidation cuts against 
that. Three deals in 2024 and 2025, Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, International Paper and DS Smith, PCA and Greif, totaled
            <a>
             roughly $20 billion
            </a>
            , the highest annual cardboard M&amp;A on record. The top three producers, International Paper, Smurfit Westrock and PCA, now control
            <a>
             about 65%
            </a>
            of 
U.S. cardboard capacity. The index registered its loudest warning in years at the same moment the number of independent producers making it shrank, which makes the 2025 reading both more dramatic and harder to trust.
           </p>
          </div>
         </td>
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           Recommended
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          <h3 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold">
           The drop, in context
          </h3>
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          <div>
           <p>
            Wooten calls the 2025 contraction
            <a>
             the biggest pullback
            </a>
            since the Great Recession, a decline one report characterized as
            <a>
             roughly double
            </a>
            the pace of the 2009 downturn. The production side backs it: the American Forest &amp; Paper Association reported cardboard output
            <a>
             down 5%
            </a>
            year on year in the second quarter of 2025, with export production down nearly 12% for the year so far. In each of the last
            <a>
             three or four recessions
            </a>
            , box demand dropped 10 to 15%. The 2025 numbers landed before official GDP figures could confirm anything.
           </p>
          </div>
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              <a id="pad-desktop" style="display: block">
               <img src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fpa-cdn1.pvd.to%252Fs%252Fflmvuz%253Femail%253D947418d3%2540uifeed.com%2526campaign_id%253D10984714%2526device%253Ddesktop%2526v%253D0.14%2526color_scheme%253Dlight/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZwYS1jZG4xLnB2ZCIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODQyMTIzMTYuOTczMDc5fQ:1wkN80:mxPFlwSlVEEvSNjwl2Hq7muthXSU5aDfI-BLG5hI9i8" style="width:100%;max-width:650px" width="650"/>
              </a>
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               <img src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fpa-cdn2.pvd.to%252Fs%252Fflmvuz%253Femail%253D947418d3%2540uifeed.com%2526campaign_id%253D10984714%2526device%253Dmobile%2526v%253D0.14%2526color_scheme%253Dlight/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZwYS1jZG4yLnB2ZCIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODQyMTIzMTYuOTczMTk1OH0:1wkN80:HK7PLvNijB4Gfcwz_N3uRj1_OEEVGvQ6xm7fBHZXg_s" style="width:100%;max-width:400px" width="400"/>
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          <h2 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:20px;font-weight:bold">
           Key Fact
          </h2>
         </td>
        </tr>
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          <div>
           <span style="color:#555D68">
            <p>
             Because 75 to 80% of non-durable goods ship inside corrugated boxes, and factories order that cardboard before making the goods, box demand leads the economy. In 2025 it fell hard: 
International Paper's U.S. box shipments dropped 5% year 
on year, a fourth straight quarterly decline, and cardboard capacity fell about 9%, the steepest pullback since 2008. (
             <a>
              source
             </a>
             )
            </p>
           </span>
          </div>
         </td>
        </tr>
        <tr class="" data-row-uuid="2baa713f-6f47-4b1c-8737-65dcb1c20de7" style="">
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             <tr>
              <td style="font-size:2px;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;line-height:2px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Noto 
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              </td>
             </tr>
            </tbody>
           </table>
          </div>
         </td>
        </tr>
        <tr class="trpad0" data-row-uuid="8ba7e469-d814-4c7b-9877-bf6c5e6b6728" style="">
         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 0;vertical-align:top;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:16px">
          <h3 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Serif,serif;font-size:18px;color:#105C8E;font-weight:bold">
           Old cartel, new lawsuit
          </h3>
         </td>
        </tr>
        <tr class="trpad0" data-row-uuid="a1dc51ad-b1f0-4773-9b09-b30617016c24" style="">
         <td class="editor-cell-text td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 0;line-height:1.7;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;vertical-align:top;font-size:16px;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
          <div>
           <p>
            A federal suit filed in July 2025 accused International Paper, Packaging Corporation of America, Georgia-Pacific, Smurfit Westrock and others of a coordinated scheme of parallel price increases since late 2020 that raised costs about
            <a>
             30%
            </a>
            .
           </p>
          </div>
          <div>
           <p>
            They've done it before. Between
            <a>
             1960 and 1974
            </a>
            , corrugated makers ran a
nationwide price-fixing conspiracy; the litigation named
            <a>
             37 defendants
            </a>
            and recovered roughly
            <a>
             $500 million
            </a>
            by 1980. Plaintiffs' counsel in the new case points to at least
            <a>
             10 instances
            </a>
            where the same players were found liable for antitrust 
violations.
           </p>
          </div>
          <div>
           <p>
            If a handful of firms are managing prices, the box index reads two things at once: the economy, and their pricing power. Anyone treating the 2025 alarm as proof of a recession has to subtract that pricing power first.
           </p>
          </div>
         </td>
        </tr>
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           </table>
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          <h2 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:20px;font-weight:bold">
           Poll
          </h2>
         </td>
        </tr>
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           <h2 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:20px;font-weight:bold">
            How many cardboard boxes are in your home right now?
           </h2>
           <div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">
            <br/>
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                       <td align="center" bgcolor="#105C8E" style="text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-radius:5px;font-family:Noto Sans,sans-serif;font-size:16px" valign="middle">
                        <!--[if !mso]><!-->
                        <a style="border-radius:5px;color:#FFFFFF;text-decoration:none;font-family:Arial;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;border:none;display:block;">
                         Zero.
They're broken down and recycled within the hour, every time.
                        </a>
                        <!--<![endif]-->
                        <!--[if mso]><a href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10984714/226416231/10143526/0/1009502/?x=e92dfc01" target="_blank" style="border-radius:5px;color:#FFFFFF;text-decoration:none;font-family:Arial;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;border:none;display:block;">Zero. They're broken down and recycled within the hour, every time.</a><![endif]-->
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                        <a style="border-radius:5px;color:#FFFFFF;text-decoration:none;font-family:Arial;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;border:none;display:block;">
                         A 
tidy few, saved for moving or returns I will DEFINITELY make.
                        </a>
                        <!--<![endif]-->
                        <!--[if mso]><a href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10984714/226416231/10143527/0/1009502/?x=b8d8f9c4" target="_blank" style="border-radius:5px;color:#FFFFFF;text-decoration:none;font-family:Arial;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;border:none;display:block;">A tidy few, saved for moving or returns I will DEFINITELY make.</a><![endif]-->
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