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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               US Inflation Checkup
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               There are three ways the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge plays out – and investors are holding their breaths to see which one they get.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: America’s inflation test
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        👀 Investors get another inflation checkup this week – and this one matters more than usual.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="73cda" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        On Thursday, the US releases April’s personal consumption expenditures index – better known as PCE. That’s the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) preferred inflation gauge, and after a few bruising weeks in bond markets, investors will be watching it closely. The question isn’t just whether consumer prices are still rising. It’s whether they’re rising fast enough to make interest rate cuts look even more unrealistic – or, worse, to put hikes back on the table.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="4fsv7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        March’s numbers didn’t exactly calm anyone down: headline PCE rose 3.5% from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in February. Core PCE – which strips out food and energy – rose 3.2% from a year earlier. That was in line with expectations, but still too hot for comfort, especially with the Fed’s target sitting at 2%. The worry is that April won’t look much better – investors are bracing for another sticky PCE report, with core inflation expected to edge up to 3.3%.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="39epb" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        This won’t be investors’ first look at April inflation – the other key inflation gauge, the consumer price index (CPI), showed that all-items inflation climbed to 3.8% in April, with energy, housing costs, and food all pushing prices higher.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="32rag" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The PCE, however, will be the number the Fed watches most closely, because it gives a broader view on what people are actually buying. It also arrives alongside income and spending data that show whether households are still powering through those higher prices – and if they are, inflation is likely to remain stubborn.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6l10a" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Meanwhile, the bond market has already started doing the Fed’s talking for it – suggesting that borrowing costs should and will remain high. The US 30-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.20% last week, its highest level since 2007, as investors demanded more compensation for inflation risk and America’s growing debt load. See, rising long-term yields are the market's way of betting that inflation and government borrowing will both stay stubbornly high. And investors suspect they may not have seen the peak yet: in one widely followed survey, 62% of global fund managers said they expect that yield to reach 6%. Traders have also sharply repriced the outlook for interest rates: before the Iran war, they were expecting two or three Fed cuts this year. Now, markets are betting on a much higher chance of a hike by December.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7439l" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        So this week’s PCE report could land in three very different ways. A lower-than-expected reading would give investors some relief, especially after the recent jump in long-term yields. A result in line with forecasts would probably keep markets stuck in their current holding pattern: no cuts on the horizon, but no panic either. A hotter number, though, would be the uncomfortable one. It would make the “higher for longer” story feel more like “even higher again”, and that could put fresh pressure on stocks, bonds, mortgages, and anything else that’s been counting on cheaper money.
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
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                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         Markets closed in the US (Memorial Day) and UK (spring bank holiday).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="6n8tc" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         US consumer confidence (May), US house prices (March), Dallas Fed manufacturing (May).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="u5mv" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         China industrial profits (April), ECB Financial Stability Review, US Richmond Fed manufacturing (May).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Salesforce.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="50i6l" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         Eurozone economic and consumer confidence (May), ECB minutes, US PCE inflation and personal income and spending (April), US durable goods orders (April), US new home sales (April).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Dell, Costco.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="9g9d6" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         Japan unemployment, retail sales and industrial production (April), US goods trade balance (April), US Chicago PMI (May).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="3bp1j" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Sunday
                         </b>
                         : China PMIs (May).
                        </li>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
                       </p>
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                        🌎
                        <b>
                         The US
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="d7npn" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         <b>
                          Nvidia
                         </b>
                        </a>
                        did it again. The chip designer posted quarterly revenue of around $81 billion – a 14th consecutive record, and comfortably ahead of what Wall Street had pencilled in. That's reassuring news for anyone worried the AI spending wave might be cresting: the appetite for Nvidia's chips is still ravenous. But the curious part is what happened next – or rather, what
                        <i>
                         didn't
                        </i>
                        . The shares were little changed. After a two-year run that's turned Nvidia into the most valuable company on the planet, simply meeting sky-high expectations no longer counts as a thrill.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="d4v2i" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         SpaceX
                        </b>
                        took another step toward the stock market. Elon Musk's rocket-and-satellite company
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         filed the paperwork
                        </a>
                        for an initial public offering that could value it at up to $2 trillion and raise around $75 billion, which would make it the biggest market debut in history by a wide margin. The filing also lifted the lid on its finances: revenue topped $18 billion last year – more than half of it from the Starlink internet service. But SpaceX still lost close to $5 billion, the red ink coming not from rockets but from Musk’s side-hustle, xAI, the AI company it absorbed in February.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="adunq" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        For retail investors, this IPO is a rare shot at buying into a business that's stayed firmly private for its entire 24-year life. And for the market, next month's listing will be a real-time test of just how much appetite there is for a giant, still-lossmaking bet on the future.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="510im" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6lh8n" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🌏
                        <b>
                         The US and UK
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7qhe9" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The latest PMI – purchasing managers’ index – surveys gave investors another reason to stay cautious. PMIs are early business surveys, where anything above 50 points to growth and anything below 50 points to contraction. Yesterday’s readings showed the eurozone and UK private sectors both stuck in reverse, with services especially weak. The US looked more resilient, but even there the headline number was helped by stronger manufacturing, partly as firms built inventories to protect against supply disruption and rising costs.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="8usa" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        So the broader message is uncomfortable: growth momentum is fading, but price pressures have not disappeared. That leaves central banks with a tricky balancing act, especially if inflation refuses to cool as quickly as activity does.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="a7m38" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        And that’s also why the UK’s latest inflation reading mattered, especially as it gave British households a break for once. Prices rose 2.8% in the year to April, down from 3.3% and softer than the 3% economists had expected – the slowest pace in over a year. Most of the relief came from a fresh cap on energy bills, which kicked in at the start of the month and eased household costs. It's not all clear skies: petrol prices jumped 23% over the year, the steepest climb since 2022, so the inflation threat hasn't packed up and left. Still, a cooler reading gives the Bank of England a little breathing room – and it stands in sharp contrast to the US, where inflation is heating up, not cooling down.
                       </p>
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                    Your Finimize Analyst team
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